How Walmart and Target Are Fighting Back Against Amazon
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-walmart-and-target-are-fighting-back-against-amazon-1537545041
While Walmart (WMT) is getting big, Target (TGT) is getting slick.
That’s an oversimplification, but it’s also one way to think about how the retailers are pushing back against a tide-like onslaught from Amazon.com (AMZN). Walmart has the lead—but Target has some advantages, too, according to a Friday note from Cowen & Co. analyst Oliver Chen.
“Both retailers have demonstrated strong abilities to creatively innovate and leverage their infrastructure to drive digital growth and compete versus Amazon,” Chen wrote. “Walmart’s speed to market and scale have given the retailer an advantage for now.”
• Walmart’s priorities in the coming years, according to Chen, should include growing its grocery business, partnering with more brands, and offering free delivery for more items. (Grocery pickup and delivery could account for more than a fifth of its ecommerce growth over the next few years, Cowen wrote.)
Walmart has an opportunity to “grow in importance to other parts of customer’s lives” through “partnerships in health care and pharmacy; innovation in financial services, and media related investments.” (We’ve covered some of those possibilities here, including a potential Netflix (NFLX) challenger and health care M&A.)
• Target, meanwhile, should continue to work to position itself as a customer-friendly place to shop. Chen noted investments in grocery delivery company Shipt; same-day delivery to stores; drive-up service; and lower-cost next-day delivery of various popular grocery items, which the company calls “Restock.”
“Intensifying ‘ease’ or convenience is a good customer-centric strategy,” Cowen wrote. “Management is positioning Target to become America’s easiest place to shop and leading omni-channel retailer.”
• Walmart offers a third-party marketplace where other people can sell products on the company’s platform. Target doesn’t, though that doesn’t mean it never will. Chen thinks that gives Walmart a boost.
“We do think the gap between the two will tighten over the next few years, but continue to believe Walmart’s marketplace”—where other people can sell products on the company’s platform”—“will separate the two,” he wrote.
• Cowen has a $115 target on Walmart shares (20% higher than current levels) and a $90 target on Target (just 2% of upside). Walmart and Amazon are in the Barron’s Next 50 index.
Email David Marino-Nachison at david.marino-nachison@barrons.com. Follow him at @marinonachison and follow Barron’s Next at @barronsnext.
Tech stocks appear poised for a good day on Friday, with shares of the FANGs and other hot tech stocks all up solidly premarket trading.
Square and Fitbit could be among the biggest early winners. Square will look to bounce back from a rough week on the back of some
Tech stocks appear poised for a good day on Friday, with shares of the FANGs and other hot tech stocks all up solidly premarket trading.
Square and Fitbit could be among the biggest early winners. Square will look to bounce back from a rough week on the back of some analyst optimism. Fitbit, meanwhile, won praise from Wedbush for its health-technology business.
Here’s what tech investors need to know for Friday.
Fitbit has been trying to diversity its business away from pure device sales for more than a year, but the company’s health-solutions business is still a small component of revenue.
Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter is upbeat about opportunities in the segment, however, and he argued Friday that Fitbit could start to show a “meaningful contribution” from the business as early as next year.
Pachter upgraded Fitbit shares to Outperform from Neutral and set a price target of $6.50, above Thursday’s close of $4.50.
“We think Fitbit has an excellent opportunity ahead with med-tech, particularly in collaboration with Google,” he wrote.
Tech earnings season kicks off in earning next week, when Netflix releases its third-quarter results on Tuesday. At least four analysts chimed in with their thoughts on Friday.
“Predicting Netflix quarters is a black-box, but we favor the set-up following a solid looking performance from the content slate, a lot of content coming and conservative-looking expectations versus historic seasonality,” wrote MKM Partners analyst Rob Sanderson, who rates the stock a Buy with a $395 target.
Wedbush’s Pachter thinks the company looks well positioned internationally, thanks to a host of high-quality original content this year, as well as marketing efforts. He also argues that the company could track ahead of its free-cash-flow outlook due to a somewhat light slate of big launches during the quarter. Pachter rates the stock at Outperform with a $125 price target.
Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White said Netflix still isn’t very good at predicting subscriber trends for future quarters. “Thus we expect volatility around this number to continue,” he said.
Nonetheless, he’s upbeat on fundamental trends such as international expansion and pricing flexibility. White rates the stock a Buy with a $430 price target.
B. Riley analyst Barton Crockett, meanwhile, wrote of “OK” search volume for Netflix and its shows. Search trends were positive for new Netflix originals, he said, but global searches for the term “Netflix” decelerated in the quarter.
Crockett has a Neutral rating and $313 target price on the shares, which are up 4% in premarket trading and leading the FANGs. The stock closed Thursday at $321.10.
Pivotal Research analyst Brian Wieser turned bullish on Snap on Friday, upgrading the stock to Buy from Hold, though he lowered his price target to $8 from $9.
“The data we look at is showing a widening user base, although one which is collectively reducing its time on the platform,” Wieser wrote. “Our take is that it is not too late for management to find ways to reverse recent usage trends and generally improve monetization regardless of those usage trends.”
Wieser also upgraded Twitter shares to sell from hold, while lowering his target to $24 from $26. In general, he’s lukewarm on the big internet companies. Wieser rates Alphabet at Hold and Facebook at Sell.
Shares of Chinese tech stocks are rallying premarket, though analysts have been tempering their enthusiasm for the shares.
Stifel analyst Scott Devitt cut his Alibaba price target to $200 from $220 overnight, and he removed the stock from his firm’s “select” list. Devitt still rates Alibaba at Buy, but like others on Wall Street, he’s worried about macroeconomic issues.
UBS analyst Jerry Liu trimmed his Alibaba target to $220 from $230, and he lowered his JD.com target to $28 from $38. He has macro concerns as well and worries about both ad and demand weakness. Liu still rates the stocks at Buy.
Activision Blizzard released its Call of Duty: Black Ops 4 title on Friday, and Wall Street will be looking for early indications on sales and reception. Black Ops 4 is the videogame publisher’s big title heading into the holiday season, and it features a new game-play mode that borrows from Fortnite’s success.
Separately on Activision, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson wrote Friday that his look at Twitch live-streaming data was positive for the publisher in the latest quarter. Olson only got in-line reads for rivals Electronic Arts and Take-Two Interactive Software based on the data.
While Walmart (WMT) is getting big, Target (TGT) is getting slick.
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