AMCI – Market confidence in February 2009. [03/09/2009]
After yet another collapse of the Art market confidence Index (AMCI) at the end of January – falling back to the record low of -20 points already posted after the moribund November sales – Artprice’s confidence barometer managed a timid return into positive territory at the end of February (+1).
The buy opportunities offered by the crisis and the expected decrease in prices both mark the return of a market dominated not so much by supply but rather by demand.
Although two thirds of respondents are still expecting further price contractions over the next three months, collectors have not deserted the market: 70% have expressed strong buy intentions.
Sentiments on February climate:
However, the art market has not escaped the general crisis. According to the Art Price Global Index, prices dropped 34% in 2008 and the first market indicators in 2009 do not presage a rapid return to a more dynamic environment. Indeed, 33% of the voters are worried about the stalemate of the economic situation.
After the first “test” sales in February (Impressionist, Modern and Contemporary Art) in Paris, New York and London, market players have seen a clear loss of momentum on the auction market and a substantial loss of confidence (-4% from January to February). Standard & Poors’ negative CreditWatch on Sotheby’s BBB- rating and Christie’s disappointing 2008 results both symbolise the shift away from a seller’s market towards a market where the buyer is considerably closer to the centre of the acquisition process. Christie’s nevertheless had a major hit with its Paris YSL – Bergé sale which exceeded all expectations and illustrated the strength of demand for very high quality works. That was a welcome respite for the auction house that was dragged into a Sino-French conflict. Conflict that could have been proved to be hazardous for its business with the Chinese market.. Notwithstanding the exceptional success of the sale, AMCI respondents clearly did not interpret it as a signal of a generalised recovery of the art market, since the index contracted 6% the following day.
Expectation within the next 3 months:
The majority of respondents are expecting further sharp price corrections. While 31% are still hoping for an improvement of the economic environment, the art market appears to be sinking in the midst of a crisis which has both a cyclical and a structural dimension.
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